Rocky Storms

Yesterday, we chased a few storms in the Rocky Mountains. We almost saw a tornado drop, but the storm just couldn't do it. Soon after that, we ventured into an area with golf-ball sized hailstones covering the ground, all with snow-covered mountains within sight. Very beautiful.

The road networks were bad, so we couldn't chase the way we'd normally want to. In other words, we were handcuffed. We ended up punching a hail core to try to see a tornado, but we didn't see any. Ironically, we started the day at the Billings airport, from which we would have had a great view of a tornado.

But the money shot included here, of the hail on the ground with the snow-covered mountains in the background, was a great consolation prize.

Road Trip

I'm blogging my storm chase. Yesterday was a "travel day", and we drove from Denver to Montana. Our exact location is secret (oooooo!). There was a lot of beautiful scenery, and I'll include a photo when I update this blog later.

Late this afternoon and early evening, we expect to be chasing tornadic storms.

Why I Don't Chase On My Own...Yet

Roger Hill is a genius.

I could end this blog right there, but I'll give a brief example:

I'm currently with Silver Lining Tours, run by Roger Hill, for a week of storm chasing. We're starting today (Sunday 6/5/11) and will chase through Friday (6/10/11).

I have been looking at the weather models all week, up until 10:30PM MDT last night. At first they were telling me we'd start chasing in the NE/SD/IA/MN area. And then Roger said we'd be chasing in Montana. Montana??!! The models said there'd be NOTHING in Montana, at least as far as I could interpret them.

Later, the models started to say central South Dakota. The Storm Prediction Center continued to not be bullish on Montana either.

And then, right before going to sleep at midnight MDT (OK, 11:53 to be precise), SPC came out with a 15% risk (15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point, or 2,000 square miles) in almost all of Montana and the western half of North Dakota. (Given how the region is drawn, it will include a healthy portion of Alberta and Saskatchewan as well).

You bet I'm going to find out what made him so bullish on Montana so early. I'll learn. Because until I do, there's no point in chasing out on my own.

Your First Storm Chase

So you’re eager to go on a storm chase. You know the joys of storm chasing, the hassles of storm chasing, and when and where to chase. You understand the dangers of storm chasing and how to avoid them. And now you’ve decided to chase. So you ask yourself, where do I begin?

You will NOT begin by going out chasing on your own. It would be like going out to the savannah and searching for lions, zebras and hyenas. You don’t know where to go looking for the storms, you don’t know how to tell if a particular storm is likely to produce a tornado, you don’t know the safe location from which to view a tornado, you don’t know how to avoid the hail core…

Start by going out with experienced chasers, people who have several years’ history of chasing storms. Make sure you’ve known them during that time period, or know of them through research on the web, to weed out the ones who make exaggerated claims. Storm chasing can get very macho and very competitive, so you can expect people to embellish their achievements.

By far your best chance of chasing with highly experienced storm chasers is through a tour company. That’s right, a tour company. People who don’t know about them tend to be surprised that there are actual tours for seeing severe storms. I highly recommend this way to start your storm chasing activities.

I have used Silver Lining Tours, co-owned by chaser Roger Hill. Since this post is targeted at my friends that want to know how best to get into storm chasing, I would be doing them a disservice to NOT mention my own experience with SLT. Quite simply, SLT is a tour company I can’t recommend enough. Roger Hill is the one of the best storm chasers that I know. The other co-owner of SLT is David Gold, who is an excellent long-range forecaster.

SLT has no idea I am making this post. I will receive no money or perk of any kind for this endorsement. They probably won’t even read this. I am simply recommending to my friends how best to chase storms.

There are other tour companies out there, of course. I have no experience with any other tour company, nor do I intend to use them. If you are considering a tour company different from SLT, I have heard from a chasing veteran that if you don’t go with SLT (for whatever reason), then Cloud Nine and Tempest are the ones to go with.

Tours go out on a fixed schedule, allowing you to plan your vacation in advance. There is usually a fixed cost for the tour, including hotel accommodations. SLT insists on a Comfort Inn level of accommodations (unless circumstances dictate otherwise, and they never have for me). Meals and transportation to and from the host city (the city where the tour begins and ends) are not included in the admission (though part of the admission is the transportation while on the tour). The cost for the tour is steep—usually $350 to $450 per day, which, again, includes hotels, for a minimum of 6 days.

SLT will say that the odds of seeing a tornado on fixed-date tours are 50%. Of course, SLT is doing some expectation setting here. I’m sure their success rate has been much higher than this, but the sample size is small, and every year is different. In 2010, every tour saw a tornado, but I think that was the only year that happened. It is rare, but some tours won’t even get to see a single severe storm, let alone a tornado. I think a tour in 2009 suffered from this, but I’m not completely sure. If SLT reads this, they can set me straight, about this or anything I say here, and I will change the info here.

If you’re interested in eventually chasing on your own (which includes doing your own weather forecasting, having a laptop in your vehicle running radar, gps, and satellite maps, installing special equipment including satellite receivers and weather radios, etc.), then plan to spend as much time with your tour guide as he/she will give you, asking questions about everything they are doing. Buy books on weather forecasting. My wife even bought a thermodynamics text.

I have been on three storm chases, and next week will be my fourth. Being honest with myself, I know I am not ready to chase on my own. Yet.

So that’s my advice on starting out storm chasing. Some people go once and get the bug out of their system. Some never lose the bug (like me). Either way, an initial storm chase can be the vacation of a lifetime.

How to Avoid the Dangers of Storm Chasing

With all of the recent tornado fatalities, many people have expressed concern about my storm chasing activities. In a previous post, I described the dangers of severe thunderstorm chasing. In this post, I provide methods that chasers can use to mitigate those dangers. This post is the fifth in a six-part series on storm chasing that began with showing the joys of storm chasing. The intended audience for this series is non-chasers who are interested chasing themselves, or simply interested in how chasing works.

First and foremost, avoiding chasing dangers requires up-to-date equipment in the chase vehicle. Radar data on a mounted PC laptop will enable you to identify the precipitation of the storm and the likely places for a tornado. The Storm Protection Center on the web can tell you if a storm is severe, and therefore has a hail core. 3G service (right now Verizon is clearly the best), with GR Level 3, will give you the ability to see all these things, but in the case where the reception goes out, a satellite weather data receiver, like Baron’s Mobile Threat Net (MTN), is essential. All of this equipment will give you a view of the storms, so you can avoid its dangers.

Redundant cell phones and a C.B. radio can help communicate to the outside world when in danger. A weather radio is advisable.

Here are some ways to avoid the following chase dangers:

Lightning: The best way to avoid lightning is to stay in your vehicle, an effective shield. When outside your vehicle ALWAYS stay close to the vehicle. Your vehicle is your means of escape should “C.G.” (meaning cloud-to-ground lightning) or any other threat present itself. When outside the vehicle, everyone should be on the lookout for C.G. When the lightning is too close, get back in the vehicle. Distance of lightning can be approximated by counting the time from when the lightning appears and when its thunder is heard. Approximately every 5 seconds is a mile.

Hail: Know where a hail core is. The SPC or MTN can tell you if a storm has a hail core and how large the stones are, and the deepest color on the radar will tell you where it is. Make sure you do not place yourself in the path of the hail core. Sometimes experienced chasers will “punch the core” in order to emerge with the best view of a tornado. I do not recommend doing this unless 1) you are a VERY experienced chaser, and 2) understand the damage it will do to your vehicle.

Downed power lines: When you see a downed power line, RUN AWAY, DO NOT PASS GO, DO NOT COLLECT $200. JUST GO. BE HAPPY YOU SAW WHAT YOU SAW AND GO THE F**K HOME.

Stranded: Always make sure your vehicle is in top working order. Replace parts proactively. Have a full-sized spare tire. Run-flats are good. Make sure you always fill up the tank just prior to a chasing session. Have more than one cell phone. Have a C.B. in working order. Carry extra parts that are small, like batteries. Bring jumper cables, flashlights, a first aid kit, water to drink. You get the picture.

Flash Flooding: Pay attention to flash flood watches and warnings from SPC. If there’s a warning, don’t chase, be happy with what you’ve seen already. When under a watch, it’s advisable not to drive into an area that can be thought of as the bottom of a crevasse.

Straight-line winds: This is hard to avoid, but, luckily, it’s not a major threat. Listen for reports of straight-line wind damage, and avoid areas where you see trees under a lot of distress.

Automobile accidents: On long stretches, avoid fatigue just like with any long-distance driving. Try to not have the same person drive all day and then drive the chase. While chasing, CALM DOWN, stay alert, and pay attention to the road. The driver just doesn’t get to see as much as the rest of the passengers. Deal with it.

Tornadoes: Your weather radar and satellite data will tell you the direction a storm is moving in. The best place to view a tornado is directly south of the storm. Most storms travel east or northeast, but not always. Remember that some storms, especially the strong ones, can make a “right turn” which changes the direction of travel usually from northeast to east. When a tornado is heading in your direction, you need to judge if you can get out of the way in time. If you can’t, then pull over and exit the vehicle. Find a ditch or some depression in the ground and lie down, shielding your head with your hands and arms. This will help prevent injury from flying debris.

Rain-wrapped tornadoes: Be well-schooled in determining where a rain-wrapped tornado is. Even experts are never quite sure. Your radar and satellite data will help a lot with this. Many times, the rain will surround the tornado in three directions, viewable from a fourth direction. This is called a notch. Avoid the temptation to view the tornado from there unless you have a well thought-out escape route.

Lack of visibility: Tornadoes should be kept in visual range, unblocked by buildings, trees, hills and rain. Have an escape route in mind, aware of the road network of the area you are in.

Losing your data signal: If you rely only on 3G for your chasing, you run the risk of becoming "blind" when you lose the signal. Supplement this with a satellite-based receiver, like MTN.

Next post: What to do for your first storm chase

The Dangers of Storm Chasing

So you’re curious about storm chasing?

With all of the recent tornado fatalities, many people have expressed concern about my storm chasing activities. In this post, I will describe the dangers of chasing severe storms. It is the fourth of a series of six posts on storm chasing that began with a post on the joys of storm chasing. The intended audience for this series is non-chasers who are interested chasing themselves, or simply interested in how chasing works.

Let me first say that I am touched by the concern. Truth be told, I am a little concerned myself; a lack of concern, with anything dangerous, will lead to mistakes. And, yes, storm chasing is dangerous. I reassure my family members that no one has ever died while storm chasing.--you can’t say that about sky diving, bungee jumping, rock climbing, scuba diving, swimming in the ocean, or even swimming in a pool. But that fact does not mean chasing doesn’t have its dangers, dangers that must be respected when storm chasing, dangers that are avoided precisely because of mitigating measures.

Here are some of the most important dangers of storm chasing:

Lightning: Lightning perhaps poses the greatest storm chasing danger. All severe thunderstorms have lightning in abundance. Lightning poses such a high risk that storm chasers rarely use the term “lightning” but instead use the terms “C.G.” (meaning cloud-to-ground lightning) and “I.C.” (meaning intra-cloud lightning). As you would expect, “C.G.” can be deadly, and “I.C.” is not. Storm chasers will call out “C.G.” to signal photo possibilities, but also to warn others in their group that dangerous lightning is within visual range.

Hail: By definition, all severe thunderstorms contain at least quarter-sized hail in their cores. But hail can be golf-ball-sized, baseball-sized, softball-sized or even larger. Getting hit with hail can be injurious—anything from a sharp sting to severe head trauma, causing death. Of course, it can damage your vehicle as well.
Downed power lines: Downed power lines can result from high straight-line winds or tornadoes. Once the weather has passed, the downed power lines don’t go away and represent the threat of electrocution, both at the line itself or in surrounding conducting material (like water from rains).

Stranded: To be stranded while chasing is really bad. Think about it. You’re near a severe storm, but you have no way to avoid what the storm has got in store for you. You could be hit by severe hail or a tornado. Flat tires, faulty batteries, lack of gas, all of these things can place you on the side of the road, many times a rural dirt road with minimal patrols, if any.

Flash Flooding: Severe thunderstorms include a lot of torrential rain it their cores, potentially flooding low-lying channels (like between two hills), intensifying the speed of flow.

Straight-line winds: Rear-flank downdraft and other strong winds are extremely common with severe thunderstorms. I have experienced winds in excess of 60 mph, winds that can knock down tree limbs or uproot trees altogether, though, thankfully, the winds I experienced were on the flat plains with no trees nearby.

Automobile accidents: When you’re chasing a severe thunderstorm you really are *chasing*. This can cause vehicular accidents, especially with a mix of chasers and freaked out locals. In addition, when you are chasing, you will spend several hours each day driving on federal and state highways. It is dangerous to drive for a long period of time, causing fatigue that will affect driving alertness once the chase has started late in the day.

Tornadoes: Although not as much a threat as you might think, tornadoes themselves are dangerous, as we all know from the news lately. While chasers have many ways to avoid tornadoes (I’ll address that in a later post), the truth is they can get caught in the wrong place at the wrong time just like anybody else. The chance of this happening greatly increase when the tornado is not easily seen (due to buildings, trees, hills, etc.), or weather equipment fails.

Rain-wrapped tornadoes: Particularly dangerous are tornadoes that become “rain-wrapped”—surrounded by a curtain of rain such that they cannot be seen. Special measures need to be taken to avoid these tornadoes in this case.

Lack of visibility: Obstructions such as buildings, trees and hills can add danger, because avoidance of tornadoes can rely on visual surveillance. Thus, chasing in towns, forests, or hilly terrain presents a real danger. But a greater danger is chasing at night, visibility only available from lightning flashes. Fortunately, all of these storms have lightning, but some more than others.

Losing your data signal: If you rely only on 3G for your chasing, you run the risk of becoming "blind" when you lose the signal. A rain-wrapped tornado and/or lack of visibility will compound the problem enormously.

Next post: How to avoid storm chasing dangers

When and Where to Storm Chase

People are constantly asking me where and when I’m going for storm chasing. The answer is “where the storms are,” but that’s not very satisfying. Therefore, I do the best I can to answer in detail without taking up too much time, but, really, I could spend a lot of time explaining where and when we chase. This post is a short description of where chasers chase, when they chase, and how they decide where and when to chase. It is the third of a series of six posts on storm chasing that began with a post on the joys of storm chasing. The intended audience for this series is non-chasers who are interested in chasing or how chasing works. Right after this series of posts, I will launch into a day-to-day blog on my storm chase next week.

The short answer, to where and when chasers SHOULD chase, is primarily Tornado Alley during tornado season. Tornado Alley is the U.S. and Canada Great Plains bordered on the west by the Rocky Mountains, the east by the Mississipi River, the south by Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, and the north approximately 200 miles north of the Canadian-U.S. border. Everyone’s definition of the borders of Tornado Alley will be different, but mine would be good enough for most people. Tornado season begins in April in Texas and Oklahoma, finishing in July in the extreme northern U.S. and Canada. But you can't be more specific than that about where you will chase more than a few days out.

Of course, tornadoes occur all over the world, and one could argue that nowadays there are more tornadoes in the southeastern U.S. than in Tornado Alley. While that all might be true, and while some people do chase tornadoes outside of Tornado Alley, Tornado Alley’s flat plains, with few trees or buildings, make it especially inviting to chasers due to improved visibility. In fact, I do not recommend that anyone chase outside of Tornado Alley due to safety issues: trees, buildings and hills obscure your vision of the tornado, and visual cues are key to staying a safe distance away from a tornado; and road networks can be sparse and/or not laid out in a grid, and so escape routes from a tornado may be difficult to find or not even exist altogether.

As hinted in the previous paragraph, the peak time for tornado activity travels from south to north as the season wears on. April chases are primarily in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. May chases are primarily in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. June chases are primarily in Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa. July chases are primarily in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Manitoba. The tornadoes are the most severe in April, but the tornadoes are the most numerous in late May and early June. Most chasers like to chase in May or June, but I know one veteran chaser who hates to chase in May (but still does). There are chasers who will chase year-round, on the rare occasions of tornadoes outside the April through July time-frame, though you’d be hard pressed to find any severe storms in Tornado Alley in November, December, or January. Chasing before April or after August is less rewarding because of earlier sunsets.

Storm chasers are, among other things, weather forecasters. They combine long-range and short-range forecasts to know where to be when to optimize for catching severe storms. The most simple and widely-used long-range forecast tool is the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook, which predicts where the severe storms will be from 3 to 8 days out. This forecast, combined with others, guides the chaser to where the storms will be on a specific day. Thus, chasers can “position” themselves at the end of one day to be near where the storms will be the next day.

The picture at the top of this post is the SPC Convective Outlook for tornadoes today, June 1, 2011 (this is the early morning one, it might be updated significantly later today, but I like this one because it is a good example). Note that there are two “5%” chance locations for tornadoes (shaded in brown). This means that in these areas there is a 5% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles (a 2,000 square mile area) of any given point. Based on this map, a chaser might target Ogallala, Nebraska, though other forecasting models might lead the chaser to a slightly different location. Almost no one is going to chase the northeastern US portion. This is because of the safety issues I referred to previously, and also because chasers are almost never positioned to reach the east coast of the US within several hours of driving time.

Based on this SPC forecast, either it's almost certain there will be at least one tornado in the northeastern US today, or there is a small chance for several tornadoes. The SPC gives more detailed guidance about the nature of the exact threat. And looking at the guidance and other models, I'd say it's the former. The air is amazingly unstable over the northeastern US, with little warmth in the upper layers to prevent storm formation. (For those of you who know what it means, 5000 CAPE and very little cap. Yikes!). According to SPC, these storms should start forming as early as 11am EDT.

Once the chase day begins, SPC plus other shorter range forecasts help the chaser pick a “target area” for the day. Since storms almost always form late in the afternoon, the chaser has the opportunity to travel for several hours to hit the “target area.” Once the “target area” is reached, even shorter range forecasts aide the chaser to get to the area where the storms are expected to form.

For example, on day 1, a chaser may have chased in Limon, CO, but seen that the next day’s storms would be in Kansas City, MO. That night, the chaser might drive to Colby, KS, driving to Kansas City the next day, driving from 10am to 4pm, catching the storms forming at that time.

Finally, I should address the issue of night chasing. Chasing at night can be a LOT of fun. You get your visual cues by watching the storms, including tornadoes, lit up by lightning. It can be very surreal. I’ll address this more when I describe the dangers of storm chasing, but suffice to say you should not start night chasing on your own until you have been on several night chases with someone who is experienced in night chasing.

Next post: The dangers of storm chasing