Presidential Election Night Scorecard

Here is your presidential election night scorecard! With this you can keep score of how the election is going (better than the networks are allowed to tell you) throughout election night.

You will start with this map on the 270 To Win website:

Click here to load this map into a new tab. You can then start to manipulate this map, but don't do it right now.

This scorecard is not my prediction map. It is simply a map of what the states should look like in an extremely close election.

Remember that our presidential election is not decided by popular vote. Instead, each state is awarded electoral votes equal to the number of representatives in the house plus the number of senators (always two). The winner in each state is awarded all of its electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes in all. The candidate which gets a majority (270) of electoral votes is the winner of the election.

Here's what the various colors mean:

• Dark blue -  Clinton must win this state. If she doesn't, she is almost certain to lose.
• Dark red - same for Trump. If he doesn't win, he is almost certain to lose.
• Light blue - Clinton should win this state if she will win the election. If she loses the state, she must make it up by winning those electoral votes out of the light red (or beige) states
• Light red - same for Trump. Losing means he needs to win the electoral votes among the light blue (or beige) states
• Beige - New Hampshire. Not assigned to either candidate. In a close race, New Hampshire is the closest to a tossup.

Here's how to keep score:

• When the networks call a state for a candidate, change it to dark blue (by clicking on it one or more times until it becomes dark blue) if Clinton won, or dark red if Trump won.
• If McMullin is called for Utah, make it beige. McMullin is a third-party candidate that is really only competing in Utah to spoil the election for Trump.
• When one candidate has 270 or more, that candidate is leading.
• When one candidate has dark color of 270 or more, that candidate has won the election.
• If a dark blue state is called for Trump, then he is all but certain to have won the election.
• Same for Clinton. Converting a solid color from one to the other pretty much means game over.

This scorecard will allow you to be steps ahead of what the networks reveal. They *may* tell you who is winning, but you'll know why and which states the challenger is likely to make it up with.

Which brings us to which states each candidate is more likely to flip:
Clinton is most likely to flip, in order, NV,  NC, FL, ME CD 2, NE CD 2, OH, IA, AZ, AK, GA
UT is a wildcard. It could go to either Clinton or McMullin, but Clinton will have a difficult time flipping it.
Trump is most likely to flip, in order, CO, PA, ME, MI, WI, MN, NM, VA

For example, if Trump flips Virginia, it is probably a very good night for him. If he flips Colorado, he becomes a slight favorite.

One final note: Nebraska and Maine award their electoral votes based on congressional district. On the lower right corner of the map is a way to set the electoral votes based on that. And while Nebraska statewide is solid Trump, the second congressional district is only a "should win" for him. Maine, on the other hand, statewide is "should win" for Clinton. However, the second congressional district is "should win" for Trump.

Here are the poll-closing times of each state. These are expressed in Eastern Standard Time.

7 PM: GA, IN, KY, SC, VA, VT
7:30 PM: NC, OH, WV
8 PM: AL, CT, DC, FL, KS, MA, MD, ME, MO, MS, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN
8:30 PM: AR
9 PM: AZ, CO, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD, TX, WI, WY
10 PM: IA, MT, NV, UT
11 PM: CA, ID, ND, OR, WA
12 AM: AK, HI

Happy election night! I hope my candidate wins!