2017 Storm Chase Day 5 - 6/30/17 - Lightning show in Oklahoma!

We had a great lightning show. More on that later.

I *hate* chasing in Oklahoma. Most people don't know this, but Oklahoma is one of the most densely populated states in tornado alley. Only Texas is more densely populated. I hate chasing in Texas as well. There's also a lot of trees in eastern Oklahoma.

I prefer to chase in the open plains where visibility is the best and the least property damage, and loss of life, can occur. And this would imply the best areas are Canada, the Dakotas, eastern Montana, northern Minnesota, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming, western Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (OK, there is a part of OK that's good to chase in). Next time we just might chase in mid-July, where the storms fire up in Canada, the Dakotas, eastern Montana, and northern Minnesota. Plus, I've never chased in those areas at all. (I did chase in *western* Montana, in the Rocky Mountains--yes, you can get tornadoes in the mountains--but that's not the open plains).

That having been said, I don't get to choose where the tour goes. The tour goes where the strongest storms are expected for the day (specifically prioritizing any tornado threat). So I chased in Oklahoma. (The only exception is that the tour won't chase in cities--it's too dangerous).

Well, we got stuck in rush-hour traffic in Oklahoma City, and we missed the best part of the storms. But there were no tornadoes, so we didn't miss any of that. However, we did get there in time for one of the best lightning show I've ever seen! (There was one previously in an earlier chase that you might call better).

Unfortunately, Heidi's camera wasn't working with her lightning trigger, and mine can't use one. So I took my photos using my iPhone with an app called LightningCam 2. Here are a couple of those photos:

Here is the GPS track for the day. We logged over 700 miles in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Next up: New Mexico, Colorado, and a wrap-up of the entire chase week.

2017 Storm Chase Day 4 - 6/29/17 - Softball-sized hailer!

Two apologies: This blog is a day late because I slept in yesterday. Sue me. :-). Also, I'm going back on my word to dye my hair if we say tornadoes, like we did on Wednesday. This is because I really stole the idea from someone else we were chasing with, and out of respect for him, I withdrew my promise. Perhaps I'll shave my head, but that's not much different from what I have now.

What a hailer! We chased a tornado-warned supercell from beginning to end. At it's peak, it was generating softball-sized hail!

Here's my best photo of the updraft:

Here's my best photo of the hail. No, I didn't get a photo of a hailstone, but instead here's a picture of the hail core:

The green tint is not a flaw (or photoshop, none of my pics, unless I specifically state so, are photoshopped), but is actual softball-sized hail in the core of the storm.

Both of these photos were taken at the same vantage point. While we were there, a motorist stopped and asked me what was going on. I told her a tornado might form in the valley, and softball-sized hail was coming. She pointed out her house down the hill into the valley, and I told her to go home and shelter there. Although we didn't think a tornado would develop (it didn't), we thought soon the area would be pummeled with hail.

After she leaves, our nineteen-year-old boy (the one who had dyed his hair after seeing a tornado before, the one whose idea I didn't want to steal) turns to me and says, for everyone, including my wife, Heidi, to hear, "She was hot!"

Honestly, I hadn't noticed one way or the other. But now I'm thinking I'll get some grief from Heidi, but she had seen the whole thing, so she knew I didn't find her hot (and yes, she knows, but I'm clueless). Whew. She reminded me that she knows when I talk to a woman I'm attracted to (it's so obvious to her, but, oddly, not so much to me).

[[[UPDATE:

Back at the hotel, we were hit with a hailstorm. We found hailstones a little larger than quarter-sized. We also had a mild lightning show. Here's a pic taken from my iPhone using LightningCam 2:

]]]

Here is a GPS track of the day. There was a lot of driving that day.

Friday's target was Oklahoma. I *hate* chasing in Oklahoma. Honestly, if it were up to me, I wouldn't have bothered, but I'm glad we did, nonetheless. More on that in my next blog.

2017 Storm Chase Day 3 - 6/28/17 - Three tornadoes!

Jackpot.

Iowa is a crappy place to chase severe storms. On the plains, the roads are usually a north-south, east-west grid, and that makes it easier to get to where you need to be to view the storm--and possibly its tornado--in contrast to places like Iowa, where rolling hills, while pretty, necessitate that the roads wind and twist, and are thus difficult to navigate.

However, we knew that Caryn (our co-guide), Heidi (my wife), and I, were good-luck charms for Iowa. As far as Heidi and I, when we were out chasing with Roger (the other co-guide) and Caryn the previous time we were in Iowa, we saw twelve tornadoes (eight at night!).

Thus, good-luck charms aside, although we knew there was a significant threat for an outbreak, we also knew getting into position to see any of them would be difficult (if there was one at all). So while we witnessed three tornadoes yesterday (Wednesday, 6/28/17), if it wasn't for a clearing through a well-placed open gate, we wouldn't have gotten a good picture of any of them. As luck would have it, I got into position take this picture:

The tornado is the sliver of a tube on the right side of the cloud lowering (wall cloud). Note the clearing I was in. We were stuck on the road, unable to see anything, because of the hills and trees, when we noticed a field across the road through an open gate. We took advantage of it and saw this little guy. It was the second tornado that we encountered, and it was extremely short-lived.

Here's another picture showing its funnel cloud before touching down. It actually looks more impressive here, but, strictly speaking, it wasn't a tornado at that point.

We thought the entire lowering would drop and form a wedge (trapezoid shape) tornado, but it never did. Instead, we got this little guy. We'll take him.

The first tornado we saw lasted so short a time that I couldn't get a picture of it. Since it was largely invisible (a tornado isn't required to be visible), it wouldn't have made a good picture anyway.

The third tornado we encountered was the type of tornado I hoped I would see for my entire life--a white elephant-trunk. *Unfortunately* all I got was a fleeting glimpse of it as we drove by at the tail end of its existence, and I could barely make it out. So I don't consider that quest completed. From the pictures I've seen on the Internet (go looking for them, I don't have permission to use them), I know if we were in a better position (and had been there earlier), we would have seen what I've been looking for.

Well, there's always next time! I'll take a day with *any* tornadoes. This was my 31st day chasing with Roger, and while I've seen twenty tornadoes, I only saw them on five of those days. So while, on average, I see a tornado 65% of opportunities, I still only saw tornadoes only on 16% of days, or a one-in-six chance. Doing the math, this translates to a 65% chance of seeing a tornado on a six-day tour. Indeed, I am four-for-six.

And I've been very fortunate in that I haven't had a chance to sight-see due to no storms. HOWEVER, earlier in the afternoon, we did get a picture of a covered bridge in Madison county:

I won't compare this to the covered bridges in New England.

Here is the GPS track of this chase.


Today (Thursday, 6/29/17), there is also a significant tornado threat. We should be in the Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri border area. Crossing my fingers! Tomorrow (6/30/17) has an enhanced threat for severe storms in the Ozarks. Yikes! Iowa is a downright cakewalk compared to the Ozarks! It'll be interesting to see our ultimate strategy for Friday. Saturday (7/1/17), the last day of the tour, will probably be spent chasing in eastern Colorado.

Storm Chase 2017 Day 2 - 6/27/17

Yesterday (Tuesday, 6/27/17) was interesting in that there were better storms within miles of my home back in Massachusetts!

Here's the best of what I saw yesterday, which was our final storm:



We did get a big lightning show, but Heidi's camera was flaky so she didn't get any lightning pictures (she's the one with the lightning trigger).

And here's the best pic I've found of the Boston storms:



I think Boston was better!

That's mother nature for you! She is so unpredictable.

The GPS track for the day is here. As you can see, we started in Garden City, KS, and was all over southern Nebraska before settling in at Kearney, NE.

Today (day 3, Wednesday) we plan to chase in eastern Iowa, where there is a significant tornado threat. Thursday should bring us back somewhere between there and Denver, and Friday and Saturday should be spent in eastern Colorado. Friday looks like kind of a down day, and though Thursday we would like to spend in Colorado, it is probably too far to get to for that day.

The last time Heidi and I chased in Iowa we saw ***twelve*** tornadoes in the same day! Nine of those were after dark, where we saw some EF-3 wedges lit up in the copious lightning. I know I'll never get a night like that in the rest of my life.

We're hoping we'll be good luck for Iowa, which our guide says is spelled B-U-S-T -- "bust" being the term for setups that look great but don't pan out at all.

When you are on the road, you get awfully hungry. My diet is pretty much shot for the week.

 On to Iowa!

2017 Storm Chase Day 1 - 6/26/17

I have pledged to dye my hair an outrageous color if we see any tornadoes on this trip! Special thanks to Connor, who I stole the idea from (he dyed his hair pink as promised when his tour encountered tornadoes).

Day 1 of the storm chase was such a thrill. It ended with a beautiful super cell (but no tornadoes).

Our first storm was in east Colorado and was severe warned (means significant damaging hail) after we left it. Roger was worried about leaving the storm, but he knew conditions were much better for severe storms in Kansas rather than in Colorado.

A later storm was in west Kansas and was severed warmed.

Then Roger was faced with the decision between following two storms. In the end, he decided to follow the more northerly, newer storm, which led to our final storm of that day. In west Kansas, further south, it served up the mother load - the mother ship, a stack-of-plates severe storm that our guide, Roger, said was in the top ten photogenic severe storms of the season. It was tornado warned but produced no tornadoes.

I used to have a tool in which you could look at the GPS track and see precisely where these pictures were taken along the track. That is no longer available, and I have not found a suitable alternative. However, I found wikiloc, which allows me to share the GPS track, along with photos not tagged with the track. Still, the location data is the meta-data embedded in the jpeg files. I will keep trying to find it. Until I can find that, here is the GPS track from wikiloc, along with six pictures (the max allowed) for the track.

As far as the future forecast for the week, today (day 2, Tuesday) will be spent in western Nebraska and possibly South Dakota. The road networks are very poor out there, so finding as photogenic of a shot as we did yesterday will prove more difficult. However, I think tornadoes are possible, as does the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Day 3 (Wednesday) looks like we will chase in Iowa, where tornadoes are also possible. Day 4 (Thursday) looks like a chase in Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border zone. Day 5 (Friday) looks like a chase in Missouri, and day 6 (Saturday) looks like a chase along the Kansas/Colorado border. It is too early to predict whether or not tornadoes are possible on the final three days.

As far as my diet goes, it is reasonably intact, with my morning walk making up (somewhat) for the extra calories consumed.

2017 Storm Chase Day 0 - 6/25/17

Today the storm chase starts. It will last for six days.

I have promised to dye my hair pink (or perhaps a different outrageous color) if we see a tornado on this chase.

We just might have all six days as chase days! SPC has today as a marginal risk, but tomorrow and Wednesday are slight risks. Slight risks are *very* good. All of these are out in the middle of nowhere in the central high plains. Looks like central easternCO & central western KS today [changed from my yesterday prediction of SD & NE], central NE on Tuesday [changed from my yesterday prediction of south central SD], and the IA/NE/MO/KS border convergence zone on Wednesday [about the same as my yesterday prediction]. So the forecast has moved consistently southward for Monday and Tuesday. [[[UPDATE: SPC now predicts severe storms in south NE, north KS, south IA, north MO]]]

The NAM model looks *insane* for severe storms in central Nebraska on Tuesday. The problem there is the road network is sparse, to say the least. If there are tornadoes (SPC hasn't mentioned them, which means the possibility is low, though the NAM's EHI would indicate a good possibility albeit within a small area), they may be hard to intercept. However, they could still be seen because of the vastness of the plains.

The NAM model looks good for Wednesday as well.

My interpretation of the GFS has Thursday in north central KS [[[UPDATE: SPC shows storms there, but also in a much larger area centered, just like Wednesday, on the NE/KS/IA/MO border area]]], Friday in southeast KS and southwest MO, and Saturday in south central KS and north central OK. That last day would mean a potential for the tornado to occur near the fictional Osiris 1 from my forthcoming novel, The Osiris Facility. However, SPC is still indicating a lack of significance for these days, but that's not how I interpret the GFS.

[[[UPDATE: There were two tornadoes yesterday. One was reported at 3:25 PM MDT the other at 6:33 CDT. Since were weren't chasing, we of course didn't encounter them. They were very close to each other in extreme southeast CO and extreme northwest OK.]]]

I forgot to mention in my previous blog that two days ago, I had a serious bout of upper stomach twitching. Not painful, but very strong muscle contractions. It was probably caused by esophageal reflux. It worried me for a little while as it lasted several hours, but since it stopped I haven't experienced it since.

Yesterday was largely uneventful. I have mildly interesting things below.

I splurged on my diet with a small amount of mac 'n cheese and ice cream. All Weight Watchers approved.

We took an exercise walk, and it was impressive how much open land there is south of Denver International Airport.S peaking of the airport, fares into and out of Denver are pretty expensive. Not sure why it is in the summer, but in the winter I assume it's because it's a skiing destination. In fact, when we go to ChaserCon there during President's Day weekend, it is wicked expensive Friday through Monday. In fact, it's usually cheaper to fly in Tuesday and fly out Tuesday and stay the extra nights at the hotel before the con begins on Friday.

2017 Storm Chase Day -1 (Minus One), 6/24/17

Each day (depending on how much time I have available), I will blog about my storm chase during the last week of June, 2017. This blog is a record of day -1 (minus one), Saturday, June 24th. The actual tour begins on day 1 (Monday, June 26th). An ambitious goal will be for me to post the GPS log and some pix on EveryTrail or something similar. However, realistically this will be done later after the trip.


On Saturday the 24th, Heidi and I excitedly flew to Denver to chase storms for the upcoming week. Or sight-see, depending on whether mother nature will cooperate with us (more on that further down).

Kids have so much energy. The ones behind us kept me awake for most of the flight. Heidi reports the girl kicked the back of her seat repeatedly.

I needed a new camera bag, so we took Lyft to Best Buy. Lyft is wonderful, just use the app, no calling 411 to get a cab company who will hem and haw over such a small fare. I bought a good bag (cheap, too!), and then we walked about a half mile to Chili's and took Lyft back to the hotel.

Why Lyft and not Uber? Because the people at Uber are assholes, that's why.

It's really hard to eat at Chili's while you're trying to lose weight. Especially on Weight Watchers. They have a three course meal for $10. Sounds great, right? Comes out to 1800-2800 calories depending on what you choose. Most entrees are over 1000 calories.

Their "healthy choices" are half our daily allowance of Weight Watchers points. Fortunately, we were able to eat only half, and we're going to have half for lunch today. We're saving our splurge for our orientation barbecue tonight (Sunday, 6/25/17).

Of course, trying to not gain weight on a storm chase is nearly impossible. We'll see how it goes.

I always have reading for work (I'm an author) to do, but lately none of it has been anything I wanted much to read (either it's not my cup of tea, or I just don't think it's very good). But this is vacation! So I purposely only brought IT by Stephen King. 500,000 words of sheer delight! It's all I have to read, and there's no way I'll finish it (since I can't read while in a moving vehicle--it makes me nauseous) during the week.

Should I mention the forecasts that I'm looking at for the week? Even though I'm afraid I could jinx things, looking at the long-range forecasts is part of the fun! Well, it is for me. These storms are so unpredictable that what I'm about to say is really just fun speculation.

So here goes . . . according to the Storm Prediction Center at NOAA, predicting three days out (which is hard to do and not terribly accurate), there's a slight risk for severe thunderstorms (slight risk is actually very good, it means we should definitely intercept some; slight risk means a 15% chance of encountering one within a 25-mile radius, and with over a hundred thousand square miles of risk . . . the math works out well for us) in Nebraska and South Dakota on day 2 (Tuesday). However, they do not expect tornadoes. Otherwise, their unofficial guidance is for severe storms for days 3 and 4, but not much for days 5 and 6. But their official guidance for those four days is the predictability is too low to really know (of course, the outlook for day 2 is also uncertain, but they seem to be required to give that one their best shot). Day 1 (Monday) doesn't have much potential at all. Unfortunately, that's the most certain forecast. We'll probably use the day to drive to Nebraska or South Dakota.

Interpreting the GFS weather model, I think days 5 and 6 look good as well, but that's really difficult to predict this far in advance, and I assume the SPC knows better than me ( But that doesn't stop me from having fun with it! :-) ). Still, we may get five chase days out of six! But that's probably the best that we can hope for. My guess is it will be hard to find a tornado this week, but easy to find a photogenic super cell in the upper Midwest plains. I'll take that for the final week of June! Especially since the year has been really sparse for severe storms (bad for storm chasers but good for EVERYONE ELSE).

From my interpretation of the GFS (I suck at this, but it's fun anyway to try), day 2 (Tuesday) looks good in south central South Dakota (though Manitoba looks good as well, which isn't in the SPC coverage), days 3 and 4 (Wednesday and Thursday) look good in southeast Nebraska, day 5 (Friday) looks good in southeast Kansas, and day 6 (next Saturday) looks good in southwest Minnesota.

Keep in mind, I've only briefly texted with Roger (the tour guide) about the forecast, and the only thing he said was the week should be good, and we'll be around ND, SD, NE, MN. I'm sure he'll straighten me out later and tell me where the storms will really be.

I've never chased in the Dakotas or Minnesota before. I hope we can this week!

Tomorrow is a lazy day. As I said, there's an orientation barbecue, but otherwise no plans. Lots of Stephen King for me!