Monday, June 26, 2017

2017 Storm Chase Day 0 - 6/25/17

Today the storm chase starts. It will last for six days.

I have promised to dye my hair pink (or perhaps a different outrageous color) if we see a tornado on this chase.

We just might have all six days as chase days! SPC has today as a marginal risk, but tomorrow and Wednesday are slight risks. Slight risks are *very* good. All of these are out in the middle of nowhere in the central high plains. Looks like central easternCO & central western KS today [changed from my yesterday prediction of SD & NE], central NE on Tuesday [changed from my yesterday prediction of south central SD], and the IA/NE/MO/KS border convergence zone on Wednesday [about the same as my yesterday prediction]. So the forecast has moved consistently southward for Monday and Tuesday. [[[UPDATE: SPC now predicts severe storms in south NE, north KS, south IA, north MO]]]

The NAM model looks *insane* for severe storms in central Nebraska on Tuesday. The problem there is the road network is sparse, to say the least. If there are tornadoes (SPC hasn't mentioned them, which means the possibility is low, though the NAM's EHI would indicate a good possibility albeit within a small area), they may be hard to intercept. However, they could still be seen because of the vastness of the plains.

The NAM model looks good for Wednesday as well.

My interpretation of the GFS has Thursday in north central KS [[[UPDATE: SPC shows storms there, but also in a much larger area centered, just like Wednesday, on the NE/KS/IA/MO border area]]], Friday in southeast KS and southwest MO, and Saturday in south central KS and north central OK. That last day would mean a potential for the tornado to occur near the fictional Osiris 1 from my forthcoming novel, The Osiris Facility. However, SPC is still indicating a lack of significance for these days, but that's not how I interpret the GFS.

[[[UPDATE: There were two tornadoes yesterday. One was reported at 3:25 PM MDT the other at 6:33 CDT. Since were weren't chasing, we of course didn't encounter them. They were very close to each other in extreme southeast CO and extreme northwest OK.]]]

I forgot to mention in my previous blog that two days ago, I had a serious bout of upper stomach twitching. Not painful, but very strong muscle contractions. It was probably caused by esophageal reflux. It worried me for a little while as it lasted several hours, but since it stopped I haven't experienced it since.

Yesterday was largely uneventful. I have mildly interesting things below.

I splurged on my diet with a small amount of mac 'n cheese and ice cream. All Weight Watchers approved.

We took an exercise walk, and it was impressive how much open land there is south of Denver International Airport.S peaking of the airport, fares into and out of Denver are pretty expensive. Not sure why it is in the summer, but in the winter I assume it's because it's a skiing destination. In fact, when we go to ChaserCon there during President's Day weekend, it is wicked expensive Friday through Monday. In fact, it's usually cheaper to fly in Tuesday and fly out Tuesday and stay the extra nights at the hotel before the con begins on Friday.

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